Opposition’s landslide victory challenges leftist rule in Venezuela

By Roger F. Noriega

Venezuela’s democratic opposition (Mesa de la Unidad Democrática, MUD) won a landslide victory against the ruling Socialist Party (PSUV) in Sunday’s National Assembly elections. Electoral authorities announced just after midnight that the MUD had won 99 of 167 assembly seats, compared to 46 for the PSUV; the remaining 22 seats were too close to call, despite the fact that 96 percent of the votes had been counted. The MUD needs to win 111 votes to attain a supermajority required to challenge executive authority and take the initiative on constitutional questions.

Immediately after the results were announced, President Nicolás Maduro made a televised address to “accept the adverse results and to say that our constitution and democracy have triumphed.” “We grasp this as a slap in the face as we take action for the future,” Maduro admitted. However, referring to his repeated denunciation of an “economic war” being waged by the private sector, Maduro said, “The opposition hasn’t triumphed; the counterrevolution has triumphed circumstantially, because of its [economic] war.”

Several hours before officials announced the preliminary results, the MUD claimed through social media that it had won at least 113 seats—which would give the opposition bloc the two-thirds supermajority required to submit draft laws to a referendum, adopt constitutional amendments, name key officials (controller general, attorney general, and public ombudsman), remove supreme court justices, and convene a constituent assembly. With a 100-seat majority in the assembly session, which begins in January, the opposition would be able to interpolate and censure the vice president and ministers, name members to the electoral council, approve a referendum revoking the president’s term, authorize charges against the president and public officials, and approve or reject states of exception.

The new assembly session in January will mark the first time in 16 years that the PSUV, which was founded by leftist strong man Hugo Chávez, has not controlled Venezuela’s congress. When the PSUV lost control of key public offices in the past, the government moved to strip elected opposition officials of power and resources.

Maduro’s somewhat contrite concession statement was in stark contrast to his campaign pledge to take to the streets to defend the Bolivarian revolution. According to unconfirmed reports from my sources in Venezuela, some military leaders weighed in with the electoral council and Maduro to insist that the PSUV authorities accept defeat. It remains to be seen whether the government will concede a supermajority; if electoral authorities fail to recognize that the MUD achieved that threshold, the opposition can be expected to force a confrontation over the results.

The opposition will have to tread lightly as it takes control of the legislative branch of government next January. The PSUV can be expected to rally its base to confront any significant initiatives that it perceives as challenging its executive authority or populist programs. For example, although the assembly can authorize a popular referendum to revoke Maduro’s presidency midway through his six-year term, such a move would be met with fierce opposition.

The MUD leadership may choose a more incremental legislative program, starting with an amnesty for political prisoners, notably Leopoldo López. López has become an international symbol of the democratic opposition and, upon his release, could become its leader and chief rival to Maduro.

Perhaps the biggest loser in yesterday’s election was Diosdado Cabello, the president of the National Assembly who, according to published reports, is being investigated by US prosecutors for involvement in narcotrafficking, money laundering, and other acts of corruption. Cabello cannot afford to lose the immunity he receives as assembly leader and could never submit to legislative oversight of his alleged criminal network.

The electoral results could cause more than mere soul-searching within the PSUV. Cabello and other alleged criminals within the regime likely blame Maduro for his inept administration of Venezuela’s collapsing economy, which apparently alienated many voters from the chavista base. These criminal hardliners will look to protect their interests, perhaps challenging Maduro for power and, if necessary, opting for political violence to intimidate the ascendant opposition.

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